Advani in wonderland

Previous posts should reveal that we don’t think much of L.K. Advani.  Even so, we thought that recent events, in particular the growing dissidence and rejection of Advani’s leadership within the BJP, might have persuaded some reflection in the 81-year-old leader.  Our optimism was premature.  In an interview with the Economist, Advani resorts to such laughable assertions as the following:

1. No riots occurred during his 1990 Rath Yatra
2. Narendra Modi had nothing to do with the Gujarat riots
3. The Gujarat riots were no different from riots in other parts of India
4. He was pained at the demolition of the Babri Masjid (never mind that it happened in front of his eyes)
5. The 2009 verdict was not a mandate for the Congress

Even the Economist’s mild-mannered interviewer found these “hard to accept.”

Battling Modi-mania in Gujarat

A single but dastardly act of violence transformed its alleged perpetrator, Narendra Modi, from just another Chief Minister to the BJP’s Prime Minister-in-waiting. Such is his stature that when Arun Shourie recently described Modi as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014, the party’s reaction was muted. In comparison, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat was greeted with rude howls and shouted down when he tried to assert his seniority over this election cycle’s official Prime Ministerial candidate, L. K. Advani.

BJP has great hopes that Modi’s magic will improve the party’s parliamentary tally by bringing in about 20 seats from Gujarat. In the last general election in 2004, BJP’s performance in Gujarat was the worst in 20 years. It won 14 seats and the remaining 12 went to the Congress. This was an unexpected upset given the widespread view that Modi controlled Gujarat following the 2002 riots. A key reason for the 2004 debacle was the absence of campaigning support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

The RSS is involved this time but reluctantly given the 300 illegal temples the Modi government has demolished recently. Further, numerous BJP leaders have been alienated (or supporting rebel candidates) because of the party’s decision to give Modi a carte blanche in selecting candidates, an opportunity he has utilized to reward supporters.

Even so, the Congress is struggling primarily due to lackluster leadership. Congress’s condition is a sorry fall from the absolute dominance it enjoyed in Gujarat until the 1980s due to its KHAM alliance comprising Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis, and Muslims. The Congress’s KHAM alliance drove the upper castes (e.g., Brahmins and Banias) to the fold of the BJP. In the late 1980s and 1990s, the RSS-driven grassroots campaign used Hindutva to drive a wedge through the KHAM alliance and consolidated the Harijans and Advisis within the BJP’s base. Modi cemented these votebanks with Godhra and the 2002 riots completely isolating the Muslims, who account for almost 10% of the state. In recent years, Modi has combined (some say, camouflaged) his Hindutva militancy with a strong development agenda cannibalizing another traditional Congress plank.

There is, however, an opportunity in rural Gujarat. Voters in villages are, apparently, disillusioned by Modi’s excessive focus on urban development. Congress’s 2004 slogan, Congress ka haath, aam aadmi ke saath, may resonate better with them this time. If all else fails, anti-incumbency is the only hope.