In God I trust, all else bring data

A manager I admire prominently displays on his desk a sign reading, “In God I trust, all else bring data”.  I have greater admiration for authors of data-driven political analysis, which is difficult to find in Indian newspapers and magazines despite the fact that it is now well-entrenched in the design and implementation of electoral campaigns in India.  Yogendra Yadav, however, is an exception.  Here is his most recent piece, which bothers me because the BJP continues to be “comfortable in the saffron belt”.  The only comforting thought is that it ain’t enough to return to power.

Superfast counting

Few waste their time on politics like this blog’s author but everyone wants to know when the counting of votes will begin.  Counting will begin early on May 16.  I recommend tuning in early given how fast results come in with electronic voting machines.  In May 2004, I distinctly remember seeing a shell-shocked Pramod Mahajan on television conceding defeat well before Noon, within a few hours after counting began.  “The Hindu” has published an excellent election schedule with my summary below.

Phase	Date	States	Constituencies
I	April 16	Kerala, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh	124
II	April 23	Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Tripura, Assam	141
III	April 30	Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, West Bengal	107
IV	May 7	Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi	85
V	May 13	Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal	86
Counting	May 16		543 (total)

An e-mail from 2004: Democracy vs. non-issues

These are excerpts from an e-mail I wrote following the Congress-led UPA victory in May 2004:

I find the debate on Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin amidst India’s elite and NRIs amusing, if not humorous.  I wonder if all of us know that an electorate of 500 million has expressed their desire and unlike California, signing petitions, forwarding emails, and compiling views is not going to “recall” the verdict.  I am nevertheless compelled to add a few thoughts although the issue has been so effectively neutralized by Sonia Gandhi.

My first argument is that I find it ironic that the outcome of the defining characteristic of our country – democracy and elections – should make some of us ashamed of being an Indian.  If the outcome of a constitutional process that we ordinarily think of as pride-worthy produces an outcome (that is fully compliant with our constitution) that shames some of us, those shamed people should also think of the process (i.e. democracy) as flawed.  If so, what is the alternative?  A tin pot dictatorship like India’s much maligned neighbor?  I’d much rather have a foreign-born Sonia Gandhi as an elected Prime Minister than an India-born (sic) Indira Gandhi as a dictator like during the emergency in 1975-77.

Those of us who are shamed at the outcome of this election should reconcile this fundamental dichotomy.  They need also declare their positions on democracy, and not just the outcome of the democratic process because the Indian constitution is clear that (1) foreign-born people are not barred from the PM’s post and (2) the elected MPs of the majority party elect their leader and thus the Prime Minister.  This dichotomy is very important to me because all of us, particularly NRIs, never stop in expressing pride about Indian democracy.  In fact, the arguments advocating stronger Indo-US ties have always included the assertion that India and US are natural allies because of their fundamental beliefs in the practice of democracy.  We cannot have it both ways – if we want to believe in Indian democracy, let’s also accept its constitutionally acceptable outcomes with grace and dignity (unlike some of our political parties!).

Now that I have addressed this issue on a philosophical level, I want to present my second argument which is at the operational level.  During the election campaign, two “star” NDA campaigners, Narendra Modi and J. Jayalalitha, raked up Sonia’s foreign issue at every meeting they addressed.  Please see The Hindu of May 8 to see what levels Modi stooped to while raising Sonia’s foreign issue (I wonder if that would shame those who are shamed at Sonia’s election?).  How did people react to the nasty personal campaigns of these two politicians?

Jayalalitha won zero out of 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu.  All of them went to Congress and its allies (DMK, PMK, MDMK, and the Left parties).  In Gujarat, Modi who swept the last assembly elections, was considered politically invincible, and had promised the BJP 22-26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, was able to deliver only 14-the lowest number of seats for the BJP in Gujarat in 20 years!  Congress won the remaining 12 seats.  There can be no more compelling evidence that these two pieces in support of the assertion that the people of India have rejected the foreign origin of Sonia as an issue.  This, in addition to the excellent performance of the Congress across the country.

Finally, I’m frankly very disappointed that we should be debating the above non-issue.  The meaning of this electoral verdict is much more profound than the country of birth of a political leader.  After all, the NDA called for early elections firmly secure of a verdict in their favor.  Yet, the people of India have responded with a resounding slap in NDA’s face strongly endorsing the numerous critical problems (e.g., job creation, agriculture, health care, water, electricity, and reduced social and economic disparities) that continue to afflict the nation but were never considered important enough to be addressed by the authors of “India Shining.”  This is just one example of the kind of issues we need to think about.

P.S.  Two facts: (1) The Indian Supreme Court decided a little after 1999 when Sonia Gandhi was elected from Amethi as an MP that constitutionally she was perfectly eligible for the positions of both MP and PM.  (2)  Sonia Gandhi received her Indian citizenship in early 1983 and not after Rajiv became PM in October 1984.

Battling Modi-mania in Gujarat

A single but dastardly act of violence transformed its alleged perpetrator, Narendra Modi, from just another Chief Minister to the BJP’s Prime Minister-in-waiting. Such is his stature that when Arun Shourie recently described Modi as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate for 2014, the party’s reaction was muted. In comparison, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat was greeted with rude howls and shouted down when he tried to assert his seniority over this election cycle’s official Prime Ministerial candidate, L. K. Advani.

BJP has great hopes that Modi’s magic will improve the party’s parliamentary tally by bringing in about 20 seats from Gujarat. In the last general election in 2004, BJP’s performance in Gujarat was the worst in 20 years. It won 14 seats and the remaining 12 went to the Congress. This was an unexpected upset given the widespread view that Modi controlled Gujarat following the 2002 riots. A key reason for the 2004 debacle was the absence of campaigning support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

The RSS is involved this time but reluctantly given the 300 illegal temples the Modi government has demolished recently. Further, numerous BJP leaders have been alienated (or supporting rebel candidates) because of the party’s decision to give Modi a carte blanche in selecting candidates, an opportunity he has utilized to reward supporters.

Even so, the Congress is struggling primarily due to lackluster leadership. Congress’s condition is a sorry fall from the absolute dominance it enjoyed in Gujarat until the 1980s due to its KHAM alliance comprising Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis, and Muslims. The Congress’s KHAM alliance drove the upper castes (e.g., Brahmins and Banias) to the fold of the BJP. In the late 1980s and 1990s, the RSS-driven grassroots campaign used Hindutva to drive a wedge through the KHAM alliance and consolidated the Harijans and Advisis within the BJP’s base. Modi cemented these votebanks with Godhra and the 2002 riots completely isolating the Muslims, who account for almost 10% of the state. In recent years, Modi has combined (some say, camouflaged) his Hindutva militancy with a strong development agenda cannibalizing another traditional Congress plank.

There is, however, an opportunity in rural Gujarat. Voters in villages are, apparently, disillusioned by Modi’s excessive focus on urban development. Congress’s 2004 slogan, Congress ka haath, aam aadmi ke saath, may resonate better with them this time. If all else fails, anti-incumbency is the only hope.

Media as it should be

Media is a powerful influencer of electoral opinion.  It is no different in India where the 15th General Elections are underway.  With many Indian newspapers, magazines, and television channels explicitly reflecting their owners’ political leanings, honest reports and probing questions are difficult to find.  However, NDTV and the Hindu stand out as exemplary media outlets.  It was delightful to see BJP President, Rajnath Singh, squirm as NDTV’s Nidhi Razdan grilled him on the BJP’s refusal to drop Varun Gandhi following his hate speech and the resulting incarceration.  Razdan was relentless and challenged Singh on the BJP’s (lousy) track record at handling terrorism as well as the on-going dissidence within what aspired to be “a different party”.  More here.