A different ending

Chiranjeevi’s political career reminds me of movies that we wish had a different ending.  When announcing his entry into politics, Chiranjeevi cited one reason being the desire to “try his hand” at it.  I consider that as adequate justification.  However, he could have “tried his hand at politics” very differently. 

For example, instead of starting a new political outfit, what if Chiranjeevi had driven down to Lok Satta Party’s offices and said, “I like your political emphasis on governance and professionalism.  I want to join your party but be much more than a “star” campaigner.  How can we work together?”  It is my belief that Jayaprakash Narayan or Chiranjeevi would have been the state’s next Chief Minister.  A more seminal change would have been the reform of Indian polity.

For such an ending, I would have joyously cheered from Lakdi ka Pul.

Can Chiranjeevi repeat history in Andhra Pradesh?

Chiranjeevi is more to Telugu cinema than Amitabh Bachchan, Shah Rukh, and Aamir Khan put together can ever be for Bollywood.  This election will test if Chiranjeevi’s popularity will translate to votes for his Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) but the growing consensus is that his party will end up in the third place with 15-20 assembly and 0-2 parliamentary seats.  Disabused of illusions, Chiranjeevi himself is contesting from a second “safe” seat, Palakol in West Godavari district.

Palakol, near Chiranjeevi’s birth place, is where I spent numerous summers visiting my grandparents.  As children, my cousins and I would return from the late night shows excited by Chiranjeevi’s action thrillers while in recent times he has energized fans by attacking corruption in movies such as Stalin and Tagore.  In real life, Chiranjeevi has channeled his popularity to drive blood and organ donations so successfully that India Today included him on a recent list of 50 powerful Indians.

This compelling legacy is dangerously close to being destroyed by a carefully pondered but poorly implemented political entry.  Electoral success these days needs more than mass hysteria.  It needs a coalescing political issue or vision; a thoughtful but dynamic strategy; and diligent implementation by a band of organizers, campaigners, and strategists at multiple levels. 

Chiranjeevei, however, was following the template N.T. Rama Rao (NTR) created 27 years ago in March 1982 when the latter cashed in his popularity as a Telugu movie superstar to form the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).  However, NTR leveraged two key issues to channel his mass following into a landslide two-thirds majority in January 1983.  One was Teluguvari Atmagauravam (“Telugu Pride”), which had been hurting from a broad range of slights by the Nehru-Gandhi family beginning decades ago from the agitation for a separate state (e.g., Nehru in a letter to C. Rajagopalachari: “Some kind of fast is going on for the Andhra Province ….  I am totally unmoved …”).  The other seminal coalescing issue NTR exploited was the promise to sell rice to the poor for two rupees a kilogram, creating precedence for the blatant political use of extreme populism.

This year, the TDP too is hard at work on destroying its “Telugu Pride” legacy by allying with the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) whose sole political goal is the creation of the state of Telangana by breaking the region away from Andhra Pradesh.  This is, however, TRS’ second turn at the wheel.  It did well in 2004 by leveraging this issue and spent almost five years in power by participating in the Congress-led UPA government.  Why should the people of Telangana buy the TRS’ tired promises again is an open question?

In general, the Congress government’s performance over the past five years is viewed favorably.  It has certainly lost some ground in recent months and the high voter turnout may further impact its performance.  However, the TDP may not be the beneficiary because of caste polarization that has intensified further following PRP’s entry.  The kapu community typically aligns with the TDP but is expected to switch allegiance to PRP significantly impacting the TDP especially in the coastal districts.  Andhra will, most likely, see a Congress-PRP coalition government.